Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 6.572232 7.204251 7.887227 8.682973 9.588226 10.590217 11.788982
2026-02-01 5.633621 6.461132 7.411271 8.592684 10.035966 11.759770 14.001844
2026-02-08 5.033674 5.947950 7.041136 8.462458 10.288390 12.593328 15.786060
2026-02-15 4.573306 5.529790 6.710103 8.300032 10.427513 13.239227 17.348619
2026-02-22 4.256093 5.248935 6.508024 8.257697 10.685838 14.032151 19.174496
2026-03-01 3.908553 4.895421 6.174130 7.995764 10.599504 14.313803 20.267907
2026-03-08 3.571557 4.529103 5.791494 7.626627 10.314251 14.260424 20.817823
2026-03-15 3.358581 4.312942 5.593562 7.494387 10.349659 14.671604 22.136161
2026-03-22 3.401928 4.445844 5.881750 8.076969 11.496786 16.908902 26.811654
2026-03-29 3.313707 4.387624 5.892540 8.245556 12.015704 18.194583 30.037613
2026-04-05 3.135281 4.190128 5.688059 8.068322 11.960886 18.506939 31.498815
2026-04-12 3.050130 4.121632 5.667510 8.172251 12.371498 19.661103 34.775255
2026-04-19 2.899912 3.954471 5.495965 8.034471 12.380383 20.131761 36.825863
2026-04-26 2.772832 3.815378 5.359266 7.943334 12.461793 20.747206 39.310993
2026-05-03 2.650285 3.676503 5.214215 7.826342 12.483608 21.246590 41.629667
2026-05-10 2.530559 3.535999 5.058570 7.679772 12.436692 21.601979 43.680588
2026-05-17 2.443827 3.441854 4.970694 7.641561 12.584464 22.364059 46.879734
2026-05-24 2.320595 3.285747 4.775792 7.404994 12.336564 22.274609 47.895052
2026-05-31 2.184771 3.104922 4.533234 7.071180 11.876783 21.687842 47.493431
2026-06-07 2.101177 3.003219 4.415210 6.951472 11.825097 21.980323 49.555475
2026-06-14 2.149840 3.112803 4.649203 7.478361 13.103629 25.402466 61.465153
2026-06-21 2.123613 3.100408 4.678124 7.630601 13.634284 27.189514 69.095482
2026-06-28 2.042509 2.995466 4.545015 7.470549 13.493685 27.339458 71.452267